Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 58.19%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Mirassol had a probability of 18.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.51%) and 2-1 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.2%), while for a Mirassol win it was 0-1 (6.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cruzeiro would win this match.