Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 37.72%. A win for Botafogo had a probability of 32.62% and a draw had a probability of 29.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.5%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Botafogo win was 0-1 (12.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.45%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vasco da Gama would win this match.