Bundesliga | Gameweek 6
Oct 5, 2024 at 5.30pm UK
Millerntor-Stadion
St Pauli0 - 3Mainz
We said: St Pauli 1-1 Mainz 05
Although the hosts have been in better form of late, they have only scored four goals in the league, and it would be surprising if they scored many on Saturday. Additionally, Mainz have been difficult to beat away from home recently, and they will likely prove stubborn to break down. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 54.91%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 22.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.54%) and 2-0 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.59%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (5.88%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| St Pauli | Draw | Mainz 05 |
54.91% ( -0.18) | 22.62% ( 0.02) | 22.47% ( 0.16) |
| Both teams to score 56.61% ( 0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.01% ( 0.12) | 42.98% ( -0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.61% ( 0.12) | 65.39% ( -0.12) |
| St Pauli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.44% ( -0.02) | 15.56% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 55.49% ( -0.03) | 44.51% ( 0.03) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.04% ( 0.21) | 32.96% ( -0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 30.46% ( 0.23) | 69.54% ( -0.23) |
| Score Analysis |
St Pauli 54.91%
Mainz 05 22.47%
Draw 22.62%
| St Pauli | Draw | Mainz 05 |
| 2-1 @ 9.85% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 9.54% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 8.88% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 6.11% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 5.5% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 3.39% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.84% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.56% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.58% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.06% ( -0)5-0 @ 0.95% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.65% Total : 54.91% | 1-1 @ 10.59% 2-2 @ 5.47% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 5.13% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.26% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.18% Total : 22.62% | 1-2 @ 5.88% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 5.69% ( 0)0-2 @ 3.16% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 2.18% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.02% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.38% Total : 22.47% |
How you voted: St Pauli vs Mainz
St Pauli
40.4%Draw
32.7%Mainz 05
26.9%52
Form Guide
