Bundesliga | Gameweek 5
Sep 28, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
Schwarzwald-Stadion
Freiburg0 - 3St Pauli
We said: Freiburg 2-0 St Pauli
Freiburg have been one of the standout performers over the first four games of the season, and they will see this as a match that they should be coming away from with all three points, given their opponents record to this point. While St Pauli managed to pick up an against-the-odds point against Leipzig last time out, we feel they will struggle to get anything from this one. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 42.32%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 33.12% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.46%) and 0-2 (6.6%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 2-1 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Freiburg | Draw | St Pauli |
33.12% ( -0.01) | 24.56% ( 0.13) | 42.32% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 58.6% ( -0.48) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.74% ( -0.63) | 44.26% ( 0.63) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.36% ( -0.61) | 66.63% ( 0.61) |
| Freiburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.17% ( -0.31) | 25.82% ( 0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 39.21% ( -0.42) | 60.79% ( 0.41) |
| St Pauli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79% ( -0.33) | 21% ( 0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 46.23% ( -0.51) | 53.77% ( 0.51) |
| Score Analysis |
Freiburg 33.12%
St Pauli 42.32%
Draw 24.55%
| Freiburg | Draw | St Pauli |
| 2-1 @ 7.76% 1-0 @ 7.34% ( 0.14)2-0 @ 4.97% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 3.5% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.73% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 2.24% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.19% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 0.93% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.47% Total : 33.12% | 1-1 @ 11.45% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 6.05% ( -0.06)0-0 @ 5.42% ( 0.15)3-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.55% | 1-2 @ 8.94% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 8.46% ( 0.15)0-2 @ 6.6% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 4.65% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 3.44% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.15% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 1.82% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 1.34% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.23% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.69% Total : 42.32% |
How you voted: Freiburg vs St Pauli
Freiburg
93.8%Draw
3.1%St Pauli
3.1%64
Head to Head
Oct 19, 2022 5pm
Form Guide
