Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 24

Feb 26, 2022 at 2.30pm UK

Stadion An der Alten Försterei

Union Berlin
3 - 1
Mainz 05

Haraguchi (8'), Becker (56'), Awoniyi (75')
Trimmel (42'), Jaeckel (67'), Baumgartl (90+2'), Khedira (90+2')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Burgzorg (90')
Svensson (12'), Hack (18'), Kohr (58'), Stoger (90+2')
Kohr (60')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Union Berlin and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

We said: Union Berlin 1-1 Mainz 05

Union have to stop the rot some time, and despite Mainz's recent upturn in fortunes, their visitors tend not to travel too well. Never a high-scoring side at the best of times, goals have entirely dried up for the Eisernen, but they can surely end their month-long drought on Saturday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 38.78%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 34.31% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.32%) and 2-0 (6.89%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 0-1 (9.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.

Result
Union Berlin	Draw	Mainz 05
38.78%	26.91%	34.31%

Both teams to score 51.02%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.85%

54.15%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.43%

75.56%

Union Berlin Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.79%

27.21%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.37%

62.63%

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.1%

29.9%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34%

65.99%

Score Analysis

Union Berlin 38.77%

Mainz 05 34.31%

Draw 26.91%

Union Berlin	Draw	Mainz 05
1-0 @ 10.58% 2-1 @ 8.32% 2-0 @ 6.89% 3-1 @ 3.61% 3-0 @ 2.99% 3-2 @ 2.18% 4-1 @ 1.18% 4-0 @ 0.97% Other @ 2.06% Total : 38.77%	1-1 @ 12.78% 0-0 @ 8.13% 2-2 @ 5.02% Other @ 0.97% Total : 26.91%	0-1 @ 9.82% 1-2 @ 7.72% 0-2 @ 5.93% 1-3 @ 3.11% 0-3 @ 2.39% 2-3 @ 2.02% 1-4 @ 0.94% Other @ 2.38% Total : 34.31%