Champions League

Champions League | First Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg

Jul 19, 2023 at 5pm UK

Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena

Dinamo Tbilisi
1 - 2
Astana

(Astana win 3-2 on aggregate)

Camara (22')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Beysebekov (50'), Darboe (51')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Dinamo Tbilisi and Astana, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Dinamo Tbilisi

Last Game: Astana 1-1 Dinamo Tbilisi
Wednesday, July 12 at 3pm in Champions League

Astana

Last Game: Astana 1-1 Dinamo Tbilisi
Wednesday, July 12 at 3pm in Champions League

We said: Dinamo Tbilisi 2-1 Astana (Dinamo Tbilisi to win 3-2 on aggregate)

With the home crowd behind them, Dinamo Tbilisi should have what it takes to reach the second qualifying round at the expense of Astana, who look set to pay the price for their wastefulness in the first leg. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dinamo Tbilisi win with a probability of 42.84%. A win for Astana had a probability of 30.91% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Dinamo Tbilisi win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Astana win was 0-1 (8.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.

Result
Dinamo Tbilisi	Draw	Astana
42.84% ( 0.16)	26.26% ( -0.08)	30.91% ( -0.08)

Both teams to score 52.07% (

0.21)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.64% (

0.28)

52.36% (

-0.28)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.96% (

0.24)

74.04% (

-0.24)

Dinamo Tbilisi Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.76% (

0.21)

24.24% (

-0.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.4% (

0.29)

58.6% (

-0.28)

Astana Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.73% (

0.09)

31.27% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.38% (

0.1)

67.62% (

-0.1)

Score Analysis

Dinamo Tbilisi 42.84%

Astana 30.91%

Draw 26.25%

Dinamo Tbilisi	Draw	Astana
1-0 @ 10.74% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 8.85% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 7.61% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.18% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 3.6% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.43% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 1.48% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.27% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.68% Total : 42.84%	1-1 @ 12.48% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 7.58% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 5.14% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.25%	0-1 @ 8.81% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 7.26% ( -0) 0-2 @ 5.12% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 2.81% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.99% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.92% Total : 30.91%