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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 45.02%. A win for Blackburn Rovers had a probability of 29.44% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.14%) and 0-2 (7.83%). The likeliest Blackburn Rovers win was 1-0 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Blackburn Rovers would win this match.
Result | ||
Blackburn Rovers | Draw | Derby County |
29.44% ( 0.04) | 25.54% ( 0.01) | 45.02% ( -0.05) |
Both teams to score 53.59% ( -0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.97% ( -0.03) | 50.03% ( 0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.99% ( -0.02) | 72.01% ( 0.03) |
Blackburn Rovers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.88% ( 0.01) | 31.12% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.55% ( 0.01) | 67.45% ( -0.01) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.81% ( -0.03) | 22.19% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.4% ( -0.05) | 55.6% ( 0.05) |
Score Analysis |
Blackburn Rovers | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 8.06% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 7.08% ( 0) 2-0 @ 4.7% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.76% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.07% ( -0) 3-0 @ 1.83% ( 0) Other @ 2.93% Total : 29.44% | 1-1 @ 12.13% 0-0 @ 6.91% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.33% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.04% ( -0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.53% | 0-1 @ 10.39% 1-2 @ 9.14% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 7.83% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 4.59% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 3.93% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.68% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.73% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.48% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.01% ( -0) Other @ 2.26% Total : 45.02% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 11 | 19 | 45 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 15 | 22 | 42 |
3 | Burnley | 21 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 26 | 8 | 18 | 41 |
4 | Sunderland | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 40 |
5 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 37 |
6 | Middlesbrough | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 25 | 10 | 34 |
7 | Watford | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 34 |
8 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 21 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 32 |
9 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 29 |
10 | Swansea CitySwansea | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 27 |
11 | Bristol City | 21 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 27 |
12 | Norwich CityNorwich | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 26 |
13 | Millwall | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 25 |
14 | Derby CountyDerby | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 24 |
15 | Coventry CityCoventry | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 24 |
16 | Preston North EndPreston | 21 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 23 |
17 | Stoke CityStoke | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 22 |
18 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 21 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 22 |
19 | Luton TownLuton | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 23 | 37 | -14 | 22 |
20 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 18 |
21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 32 | -13 | 18 |
22 | Portsmouth | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 17 |
23 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 42 | -23 | 17 |
24 | Hull City | 21 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 16 |
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