Championship

Championship | Gameweek 39

Apr 2, 2021 at 3pm UK

Pride Park Stadium

Derby
2 - 0
Luton

Gregory (7'), Shinnie (49' pen.)
Wisdom (47'), Sibley (51'), Byrne (66'), Kazim-Richards (90+5')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Dewsbury-Hall (66'), Pearson (81')

Wayne Rooney refuses to let Derby take their foot off the pedal

Lee Gregory and Graeme Shinnie earned the Rams a first win in eight games.

Apr 2, 18:50

The Match

Match Report

Lee Gregory's early opener and Graeme Shinnie's second-half penalty settled the clash.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Championship clash between Derby County and Luton Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 36.5%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 33.6% and a draw had a probability of 29.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.29%) and 2-0 (7.12%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 0-1 (12.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Luton Town
36.5%	29.89%	33.6%

Both teams to score 42.35%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

35.18%

64.82%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

16.24%

83.76%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.07%

33.93%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.4%

70.6%

Luton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.1%

35.9%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.32%

72.68%

Score Analysis

Derby County 36.5%

Luton Town 33.6%

Draw 29.88%

Derby County	Draw	Luton Town
1-0 @ 13.16% 2-1 @ 7.29% 2-0 @ 7.12% 3-1 @ 2.63% 3-0 @ 2.56% 3-2 @ 1.35% Other @ 2.4% Total : 36.5%	1-1 @ 13.48% 0-0 @ 12.17% 2-2 @ 3.73% Other @ 0.49% Total : 29.88%	0-1 @ 12.47% 1-2 @ 6.91% 0-2 @ 6.39% 1-3 @ 2.36% 0-3 @ 2.18% 2-3 @ 1.28% Other @ 2.01% Total : 33.6%