Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 56.92%. A win for Shanghai Shenhua had a probability of 21.78% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.29%) and 0-1 (8.18%). The likeliest Shanghai Shenhua win was 2-1 (5.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.