Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 41.25%. A draw had a probability of 29.7% and a win for Patronato had a probability of 29.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.37%) and 1-2 (7.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.32%), while for a Patronato win it was 1-0 (11.4%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Independiente in this match.