Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a De Graafschap win with a probability of 63.54%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 17.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a De Graafschap win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.17%) and 1-3 (7.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.15%), while for a MVV Maastricht win it was 2-1 (4.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that De Graafschap would win this match.