Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NAC Breda win with a probability of 47.24%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 28.7% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a NAC Breda win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.98%) and 0-2 (7.51%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 2-1 (7.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that NAC Breda would win this match.