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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 41.17%. A win for Groningen had a probability of 35.25% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.05%) and 2-0 (5.79%). The likeliest Groningen win was 1-2 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.61%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that NEC would win this match.
Result | ||
NEC | Draw | Groningen |
41.17% ( -0.63) | 23.58% ( 0.57) | 35.25% ( 0.06) |
Both teams to score 62.78% ( -2.15) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.94% ( -2.81) | 39.06% ( 2.81) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.62% ( -3.01) | 61.38% ( 3.02) |
NEC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.67% ( -1.44) | 19.33% ( 1.44) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.9% ( -2.42) | 51.1% ( 2.42) |
Groningen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.82% ( -1.26) | 22.18% ( 1.26) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.42% ( -1.93) | 55.58% ( 1.93) |
Score Analysis |
NEC | Draw | Groningen |
2-1 @ 8.72% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 7.05% ( 0.61) 2-0 @ 5.79% ( 0.25) 3-1 @ 4.78% ( -0.2) 3-2 @ 3.6% ( -0.29) 3-0 @ 3.17% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.96% ( -0.18) 4-2 @ 1.48% ( -0.2) 4-0 @ 1.3% ( -0.06) Other @ 3.32% Total : 41.17% | 1-1 @ 10.61% ( 0.54) 2-2 @ 6.57% ( -0.22) 0-0 @ 4.29% ( 0.54) 3-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.22) Other @ 0.31% Total : 23.58% | 1-2 @ 7.99% ( 0.11) 0-1 @ 6.46% ( 0.6) 0-2 @ 4.86% ( 0.28) 1-3 @ 4.01% ( -0.1) 2-3 @ 3.3% ( -0.24) 0-3 @ 2.44% ( 0.05) 1-4 @ 1.51% ( -0.1) 2-4 @ 1.24% ( -0.14) 0-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.53% Total : 35.25% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 9 | 31 | 33 |
2 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 28 |
3 | Ajax | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 26 |
4 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 13 | 15 | 25 |
5 | FC Twente | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 22 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
7 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 17 |
8 | NECNijmegen | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 16 |
9 | Willem II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 15 |
10 | Go Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 15 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 15 |
12 | Heerenveen | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
13 | Groningen | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 12 |
14 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
15 | Heracles | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 27 | -21 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 4 |
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