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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 66.56%. A draw had a probability of 19.3% and a win for Groningen had a probability of 14.18%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.1%), while for a Groningen win it was 0-1 (4.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
Result | ||
Ajax | Draw | Groningen |
66.56% ( -0.53) | 19.25% ( 0.18) | 14.18% ( 0.34) |
Both teams to score 51.89% ( 0.31) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.62% ( -0.07) | 41.37% ( 0.07) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.22% ( -0.07) | 63.77% ( 0.07) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.45% ( -0.16) | 11.54% ( 0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
63.53% ( -0.35) | 36.47% ( 0.35) |
Groningen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.67% ( 0.45) | 41.33% ( -0.46) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.15% ( 0.4) | 77.85% ( -0.4) |
Score Analysis |
Ajax | Draw | Groningen |
2-0 @ 11.12% ( -0.11) 1-0 @ 10.3% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.83% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 8% ( -0.13) 3-1 @ 7.07% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 4.32% ( -0.1) 4-1 @ 3.82% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 3.12% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 1.87% ( -0.06) 4-2 @ 1.69% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.65% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.79% Total : 66.56% | 1-1 @ 9.1% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 4.77% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.34% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.12% Total : 19.25% | 0-1 @ 4.22% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 4.02% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 1.86% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 1.28% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 1.18% ( 0.04) Other @ 1.62% Total : 14.18% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 68 | 23 | 45 | 50 |
2 | Ajax | 19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 41 | 17 | 24 | 45 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 42 |
4 | Feyenoord | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 36 |
5 | FC Twente | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 39 | 25 | 14 | 34 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 34 | 21 | 13 | 34 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 35 | 28 | 7 | 31 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 29 | 38 | -9 | 26 |
9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 21 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 26 |
10 | Heerenveen | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 23 | 38 | -15 | 25 |
11 | NECNijmegen | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 31 | 28 | 3 | 24 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 24 |
13 | Willem II | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 28 | -4 | 23 |
14 | Groningen | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 21 |
15 | Heracles | 21 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 21 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 20 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 17 |
17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 20 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 22 | 44 | -22 | 11 |
18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 19 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 39 | -29 | 10 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |