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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 66.56%. A draw had a probability of 19.3% and a win for Groningen had a probability of 14.18%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.1%), while for a Groningen win it was 0-1 (4.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
Result | ||
Ajax | Draw | Groningen |
66.56% (![]() | 19.25% (![]() | 14.18% (![]() |
Both teams to score 51.89% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.62% (![]() | 41.37% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.22% (![]() | 63.77% (![]() |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.45% (![]() | 11.54% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
63.53% (![]() | 36.47% (![]() |
Groningen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.67% (![]() | 41.33% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.15% (![]() | 77.85% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Ajax | Draw | Groningen |
2-0 @ 11.12% (![]() 1-0 @ 10.3% ( ![]() 2-1 @ 9.83% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 8% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 7.07% ( ![]() 4-0 @ 4.32% ( ![]() 4-1 @ 3.82% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 3.12% ( ![]() 5-0 @ 1.87% ( ![]() 4-2 @ 1.69% ( ![]() 5-1 @ 1.65% ( ![]() Other @ 3.79% Total : 66.56% | 1-1 @ 9.1% (![]() 0-0 @ 4.77% ( ![]() 2-2 @ 4.34% ( ![]() 3-3 @ 0.92% ( ![]() Other @ 0.12% Total : 19.25% | 0-1 @ 4.22% (![]() 1-2 @ 4.02% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 1.86% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 1.28% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 1.18% ( ![]() Other @ 1.62% Total : 14.18% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 23 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 26 | 45 | 52 |
2 | Ajax | 21 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 45 | 18 | 27 | 51 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 23 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 42 | 36 | 6 | 43 |
4 | Feyenoord | 22 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 46 | 26 | 20 | 40 |
5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 38 | 21 | 17 | 40 |
6 | FC Twente | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 44 | 30 | 14 | 36 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 40 | 34 | 6 | 35 |
8 | Groningen | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 27 |
9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 26 | 41 | -15 | 27 |
10 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 26 |
11 | Heerenveen | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 26 | 41 | -15 | 26 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 32 | 30 | 2 | 24 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 24 |
14 | Willem II | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 24 |
15 | Heracles | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 24 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 20 |
17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 22 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 17 |
18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 21 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 43 | -31 | 13 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |