Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Astana win with a probability of 43.76%. A win for Backa Topola had a probability of 30.77% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Astana win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (7.45%). The likeliest Backa Topola win was 0-1 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Astana in this match.