Conference League | Second Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Jul 27, 2023 at 6.30pm UK
St. Jakob-Park
Basel1 - 3Tobol
Coverage of the Conference League Second Qualifying Round clash between Basel and Tobol.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: St Gallen 2-1 Basel
Saturday, July 22 at 5pm in Swiss Super League
Saturday, July 22 at 5pm in Swiss Super League
Last Game: Honka 0-0 Tobol
Thursday, July 20 at 5pm in Europa Conference League
Thursday, July 20 at 5pm in Europa Conference League
| Team | Goals scored | Avg per game | Top scorer | |
| 1 | Lugano | 3 | 3.00 | Celar |
| 2 | Servette | 3 | 3.00 | Bedia |
| 3 | FC Zurich | 2 | 2.00 | Katic |
| 4 | St Gallen | 2 | 2.00 | Geubbels |
| 5 | Young Boys | 2 | 2.00 | Itten |
| 6 | Basel | 1 | 1.00 | Frei |
| 7 | Grasshopper | 1 | 1.00 | Ndenge |
| 8 | Lausanne | 1 | 1.00 | Balde |
| 9 | Winterthur | 0 | 0.00 | |
| 10 | Luzern | 0 | 0.00 | |
| 11 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 0 | 0.00 | |
| 12 | Yverdon Sport | 0 | 0.00 |
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 54.1%. A win for Tobol had a probability of 23.38% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.01%) and 2-0 (8.45%). The likeliest Tobol win was 1-2 (6.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Basel | Draw | Tobol |
54.1% ( -0.11) | 22.52% ( 0.04) | 23.38% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 58.13% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
