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Europa Conference League header WWW

UEFA Conference League
Conference League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Mar 9, 2023 at 8pm UK
INEA Stadion

Lech Poznan
2 - 0
Djurgarden

Milic (39'), Marchwinski (82')
Murawski (60'), Ishak (67')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Gracia (49'), Edvardsen (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Lech Poznan and Djurgardens IF, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lech Poznan

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Lech Poznan 1-0 Bodo/Glimt
Thursday, February 23 at 8pm in Europa Conference League
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Djurgardens IF

All competitions
Europa Conference League
Last Game: Djurgarden 0-1 Mjallby AIF
Sunday, November 6 at 2pm in Swedish Allsvenskan

We said: Lech Poznan 1-0 Djurgardens IF

 Lech Poznan have defeated some tricky opponents on route to this round-of-16 tie and will be confident of gaining a second-leg advantage by earning victory in front of their raucous home support on Thursday. Djurgardens are in the middle of their pre-season currently, which could hinder their ability to hit the ground running in Poland, but we believe the tie will not be out of their reach after proceedings at Stadion Poznan. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lech Poznan win with a probability of 38.12%. A win for Djurgardens IF had a probability of 35.37% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lech Poznan win was 1-0 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.31%) and 2-0 (6.59%). The likeliest Djurgardens IF win was 0-1 (9.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lech Poznan would win this match.

Result
Lech PoznanDrawDjurgardens IF
38.12% (-0.056000000000004 -0.06) 26.5% (-0.0010000000000012 -0) 35.37% (0.055999999999997 0.06)
Both teams to score 52.49% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.65% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)52.35% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.96% (0.0019999999999989 0)74.04% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Lech Poznan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.26% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)26.74% (0.029 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.99% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)62% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
Djurgardens IF Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.65% (0.036000000000001 0.04)28.34% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.92% (0.045999999999999 0.05)64.08% (-0.047000000000011 -0.05)
Score Analysis
    Lech Poznan 38.12%
    Djurgardens IF 35.37%
    Draw 26.49%
Lech PoznanDrawDjurgardens IF
1-0 @ 10% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-1 @ 8.31% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
2-0 @ 6.59% (-0.012 -0.01)
3-1 @ 3.66% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
3-0 @ 2.9% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.3% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-1 @ 1.21% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-0 @ 0.96% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.2%
Total : 38.12%
1-1 @ 12.6%
0-0 @ 7.58% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
2-2 @ 5.24% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-3 @ 0.97%
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 26.49%
0-1 @ 9.55% (0.0080000000000009 0.01)
1-2 @ 7.94% (0.008 0.01)
0-2 @ 6.02% (0.011 0.01)
1-3 @ 3.34% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
0-3 @ 2.53% (0.008 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.2% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-4 @ 1.05% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.73%
Total : 35.37%

How you voted: Lech Poznan vs Djurgarden

Lech Poznan
64.4%
Draw
13.9%
Djurgardens IF
21.8%
101
rhs 2.0
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