We see Marseille as a far stronger side than their Azerbaijani visitors, and, with home advantage and given their recent form, we do not expect them to face many problems in their bid to take a lead into the second leg.
Should, at least, a combination of them be deployed, the likes of Payet, Milik and Bakambu boast the ability to put the relative European minnows to the sword in France.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 59.87%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 15.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.12%) and 2-1 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.07%), while for a Qarabag FK win it was 0-1 (6.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
