UEFA Conference League

Europa Conference League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 2nd Leg

Feb 24, 2022 at 5.45pm UK

Qarabag FK
0 - 3
Marseille

(Marseille win 6-1 on aggregate)

Ozobic (36'), Medina (48'), Kady (57')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Gueye (12'), Guendouzi (77'), de la Fuente (90+2')
Gonzalez (36'), Gueye (36'), Caleta-Car (43'), Bakambu (53'), Payet (73')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Qarabag FK and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

We said: Qarabag FK 1-3 Marseille (Marseille win 6-2 on aggregate)

Given the result of the first leg, the hosts will likely go in desperate search of goals to overturn the deficit, and Les Olympiens have the ability to punish them on the break. While the Horsemen can cause their visitors problems, we ultimately see Sampaoli's men being too strong and predict another dominant victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 51.03%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 22.71%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.19%) and 1-2 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.29%), while for a Qarabag FK win it was 1-0 (8.26%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
Qarabag FK	Draw	Marseille
22.71%	26.26%	51.03%

Both teams to score 45.84%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.63%

57.36%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.81%

78.18%

Qarabag FK Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.21%

40.79%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.63%

77.36%

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.42%

22.58%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.82%

56.18%

Score Analysis

Qarabag FK 22.71%

Marseille 51.02%

Draw 26.26%

Qarabag FK	Draw	Marseille
1-0 @ 8.26% 2-1 @ 5.51% 2-0 @ 3.7% 3-1 @ 1.65% 3-2 @ 1.23% 3-0 @ 1.11% Other @ 1.25% Total : 22.71%	1-1 @ 12.29% 0-0 @ 9.21% 2-2 @ 4.1% Other @ 0.66% Total : 26.26%	0-1 @ 13.7% 0-2 @ 10.19% 1-2 @ 9.15% 0-3 @ 5.06% 1-3 @ 4.54% 2-3 @ 2.03% 0-4 @ 1.88% 1-4 @ 1.69% Other @ 2.78% Total : 51.02%