We said: Nice 1-1 FC Koln
Given their amount of injuries, Koln are likely to name a more settled starting XI, but we can envisage a share of the spoils here.
Both sides will fancy their chances of progressing from the group, so they may be happy to avoid defeat and prioritise winning their matches against the other two sides.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nice win with a probability of 44.33%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 31.49% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nice win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.39%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 1-2 (7.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.