Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 53.14%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for HNK Rijeka had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.02%) and 1-2 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.75%), while for a HNK Rijeka win it was 1-0 (7.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.