Europa League | Third Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Aug 3, 2021 at 6pm UK
Bakcell Arena
Neftchi Baku2 - 2HJK Helsinki
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HJK Helsinki win with a probability of 46.03%. A win for Neftchi Baku had a probability of 31.44% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a HJK Helsinki win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.54%) and 0-2 (6.03%). The likeliest Neftchi Baku win was 2-1 (7.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Neftchi Baku | Draw | HJK Helsinki |
| 31.44% | 22.52% | 46.03% |
| Both teams to score 65.31% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.84% | 35.15% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.84% | 57.16% |
| Neftchi Baku Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.57% | 22.43% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 44.04% | 55.95% |
| HJK Helsinki Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.19% | 15.81% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 55.03% | 44.97% |
| Score Analysis |
Neftchi Baku 31.44%
HJK Helsinki 46.03%
Draw 22.52%
| Neftchi Baku | Draw | HJK Helsinki |
| 2-1 @ 7.31% 1-0 @ 5.3% 2-0 @ 3.96% 3-1 @ 3.64% 3-2 @ 3.36% 3-0 @ 1.97% 4-1 @ 1.36% 4-2 @ 1.26% Other @ 3.28% Total : 31.44% | 1-1 @ 9.78% 2-2 @ 6.74% 0-0 @ 3.55% 3-3 @ 2.07% Other @ 0.4% Total : 22.52% | 1-2 @ 9.02% 0-1 @ 6.54% 0-2 @ 6.03% 1-3 @ 5.55% 2-3 @ 4.15% 0-3 @ 3.71% 1-4 @ 2.56% 2-4 @ 1.91% 0-4 @ 1.71% 3-4 @ 0.95% 1-5 @ 0.94% Other @ 2.97% Total : 46.03% |
How you voted: Neftchi Baku vs HJK Helsinki
Neftchi Baku
54.8%Draw
21.9%HJK Helsinki
23.3%73
Form Guide
