Europa League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 2nd Leg
Feb 20, 2025 at 5.45pm UK
Stadio Olimpico
Roma3 - 2Porto
We said: Roma 2-0 Porto (Roma win 3-1 on aggregate)
Not only are Roma enjoying a purple patch under beloved boss Claudio Ranieri, but their home record in Europe also stands up to scrutiny. In contrast, Porto are enduring a tough time by comparison with past standards - and they rarely produce their very best outside of Portugal. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 41.66%. A win for Roma had a probability of 32.41% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.79%) and 0-2 (7.17%). The likeliest Roma win was 1-0 (8.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Roma | Draw | Porto |
32.41% ( 0.38) | 25.94% ( -0.06) | 41.66% ( -0.32) |
| Both teams to score 53.67% ( 0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
