We said: Roma 2-1 Braga
Home advantage can make all the difference for a brittle Roma side that often falters when venturing outside of the Eternal City. The hosts should prevail, but Braga are capable opponents with a handful of proven performers at Europa League level - it could be a very close contest. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 48.5%. A win for Roma had a probability of 27.23% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.49%) and 0-2 (8.02%). The likeliest Roma win was 1-0 (6.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Roma | Draw | Braga |
27.23% ( -0.6) | 24.27% ( -0.4) | 48.5% ( 1) |
| Both teams to score 56.2% ( 0.85) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.1% ( 1.34) | 45.9% ( -1.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.79% ( 1.26) | 68.21% ( -1.26) |
| Roma Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.39% ( 0.25) | 30.61% ( -0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 33.15% ( 0.3) | 66.85% ( -0.3) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.99% ( 0.94) | 19.01% ( -0.94) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 49.43% ( 1.54) | 50.57% ( -1.55) |
| Score Analysis |
Roma 27.23%
Braga 48.5%
Draw 24.26%
| Roma | Draw | Braga |
| 1-0 @ 6.89% ( -0.35) 2-1 @ 6.77% ( -0.09)2-0 @ 4.08% ( -0.18)3-1 @ 2.67% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.22% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 1.61% ( -0.06)Other @ 3% Total : 27.23% | 1-1 @ 11.43% ( -0.23) 0-0 @ 5.82% ( -0.34)2-2 @ 5.62% ( 0.09)3-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.26% | 0-1 @ 9.66% ( -0.27) 1-2 @ 9.49% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 8.02% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 5.25% ( 0.2)0-3 @ 4.44% ( 0.14)2-3 @ 3.11% ( 0.14)1-4 @ 2.18% ( 0.15)0-4 @ 1.84% ( 0.11)2-4 @ 1.29% ( 0.09)Other @ 3.21% Total : 48.5% |
How you voted: Roma vs Braga
Roma
70.9%Draw
15.6%Braga
13.5%141
