Europa League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 1st Leg
Feb 13, 2025 at 8pm UK
Estadio Do Dragao
Porto1 - 1Roma
We said: Porto 1-1 Roma
Unbeaten in eight Serie A matches - after losing seven of the previous nine - Roma have certainly turned a corner, but they still lack resilience on the road. Now adapting to the tactics of another new coach, Porto are enduring a tough time themselves, so the Dragons may have to settle for a first-leg draw. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 54.19%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Roma had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.87%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.42%), while for a Roma win it was 0-1 (6.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Roma |
54.19% ( 0.02) | 24.01% ( -0) | 21.8% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 51.2% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.27% ( -0) | 49.73% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.26% ( -0) | 71.74% ( 0) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.74% ( 0) | 18.26% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 50.7% ( 0.01) | 49.3% ( -0.01) |
| Roma Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.63% ( -0.01) | 37.37% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 25.85% ( -0.01) | 74.15% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
Porto 54.19%
Roma 21.8%
Draw 24.01%
| Porto | Draw | Roma |
| 1-0 @ 11.6% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.87% ( 0)2-1 @ 9.71% 3-0 @ 5.59% ( 0)3-1 @ 5.51% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.71% 4-0 @ 2.38% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.34% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.15% Other @ 3.34% Total : 54.19% | 1-1 @ 11.42% 0-0 @ 6.82% ( 0)2-2 @ 4.78% ( -0)Other @ 0.99% Total : 24.01% | 0-1 @ 6.72% ( -0) 1-2 @ 5.62% ( -0)0-2 @ 3.31% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.85% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.57% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.09% ( -0)Other @ 1.66% Total : 21.8% |
How you voted: Porto vs Roma
Porto
44.3%Draw
26.3%Roma
29.3%167
