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Europa League
Porto
Europa League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 1st Leg
Feb 13, 2025 at 8pm UK
Estadio Do Dragao
Roma logo

Porto
1 - 1
Roma

Moura (67')
Varela (20'), Moura (45+2'), Otavio (71')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Celik (45+5')
Pellegrini (18'), Celik (28'), Kone (34'), Saelemaekers (45+2'), Cristante (63'), Baldanzi (90+4'), Paredes (90+4')
Cristante (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Porto and Roma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Porto

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Porto 1-1 Sporting Lisbon
Friday, February 7 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Roma

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Venezia 0-1 Roma
Sunday, February 9 at 11.30am in Serie A

We said: Porto 1-1 Roma

 Unbeaten in eight Serie A matches - after losing seven of the previous nine - Roma have certainly turned a corner, but they still lack resilience on the road. Now adapting to the tactics of another new coach, Porto are enduring a tough time themselves, so the Dragons may have to settle for a first-leg draw. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 54.19%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Roma had a probability of 21.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.87%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.42%), while for a Roma win it was 0-1 (6.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
PortoDrawRoma
54.19% (0.015000000000001 0.02) 24.01% (-0.0030000000000001 -0) 21.8% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)
Both teams to score 51.2% (-0.0080000000000027 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.27% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)49.73% (0.0039999999999978 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.26% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)71.74% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Porto Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.74% (0.0049999999999955 0)18.26% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.7% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)49.3% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Roma Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.63% (-0.012 -0.01)37.37% (0.014000000000003 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.85% (-0.012 -0.01)74.15% (0.01400000000001 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Porto 54.19%
    Roma 21.8%
    Draw 24.01%
PortoDrawRoma
1-0 @ 11.6% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-0 @ 9.87% (0.0039999999999996 0)
2-1 @ 9.71%
3-0 @ 5.59% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-1 @ 5.51% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-2 @ 2.71%
4-0 @ 2.38% (0.0020000000000002 0)
4-1 @ 2.34% (0.0010000000000003 0)
4-2 @ 1.15%
Other @ 3.34%
Total : 54.19%
1-1 @ 11.42%
0-0 @ 6.82% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-2 @ 4.78% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 24.01%
0-1 @ 6.72% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-2 @ 5.62% (-0.0029999999999992 -0)
0-2 @ 3.31% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-3 @ 1.85% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
2-3 @ 1.57% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
0-3 @ 1.09% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 1.66%
Total : 21.8%

How you voted: Porto vs Roma

Porto
44.3%
Draw
26.3%
Roma
29.3%
167
Head to Head
Mar 6, 2019 8pm
Round of 16
Porto
3-1
Roma
> Match Report
Feb 12, 2019 8pm
Round of 16
Roma
2-1
Porto
> Match Report
Aug 23, 2016 7.45pm
Playoffs
Roma
0-3
Porto

Gerson (90')
De Rossi (39'), Emerson (50')
Felipe (8'), Layun (73'), Corona (75')
Herrera (14'), Otavio (31'), Oliveira (57'), Silva (66')
> Match Report
Aug 17, 2016 7.45pm
Playoffs
Porto
1-1
Roma
Silva (61' pen.)
Andre (63'), Pereira (95')
Felipe (21' og.)
Manolas (14'), Vermaelan (28'), Strootman (56'), Palmieri (60'), De Rossi (95')
Vermaelan (41')
rhs 2.0
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