Europa League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 1st Leg
Feb 13, 2025 at 5.45pm UK
Stade Joseph Marien
Union SG0 - 2Ajax
We said: Union SG 1-1 Ajax
While both sides are improving, neither score bucket loads of goals, so a tight contest could unfold across the two legs. An away draw would set Ajax up as favourites to progress after next week's return, and they should be able to keep in-form Union at arm's length. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 44.74%. A win for Union SG had a probability of 30.4% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.18%) and 0-2 (7.36%). The likeliest Union SG win was 1-0 (7.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Union SG | Draw | Ajax |
30.4% ( 0.1) | 24.87% ( 0.04) | 44.74% ( -0.14) |
| Both teams to score 56.34% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.31% ( -0.14) | 46.69% ( 0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.05% ( -0.13) | 68.95% ( 0.13) |
| Union SG Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.25% ( -0) | 28.75% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 35.41% ( -0) | 64.59% ( -0) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.08% ( -0.12) | 20.92% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 46.35% ( -0.19) | 53.65% ( 0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
Union SG 30.4%
Ajax 44.74%
Draw 24.86%
| Union SG | Draw | Ajax |
| 1-0 @ 7.5% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 7.31% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 4.67% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 3.04% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.38% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.94% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 0.95% ( 0)Other @ 2.62% Total : 30.4% | 1-1 @ 11.72% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.02% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 5.72% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.86% | 0-1 @ 9.41% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 9.18% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 7.36% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 4.79% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 3.84% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.98% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.87% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.5% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.17% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.65% Total : 44.74% |
How you voted: Union SG vs Ajax
Union SG
32.2%Draw
20.3%Ajax
47.5%177
