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Europa League
Europa League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 1st Leg
Feb 13, 2025 at 5.45pm UK
Stade Joseph Marien
Ajax

Union SG
0 - 2
Ajax


Mac Allister (79')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Rasmussen (59'), Mokio (71')
Mokio (62')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League playoff between Union SG and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Union SG

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Kortrijk 1-2 Union SG
Sunday, February 9 at 3pm in Belgian Pro League

Ajax

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Sittard 0-2 Ajax
Sunday, February 9 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie

We said: Union SG 1-1 Ajax

 While both sides are improving, neither score bucket loads of goals, so a tight contest could unfold across the two legs. An away draw would set Ajax up as favourites to progress after next week's return, and they should be able to keep in-form Union at arm's length. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 44.74%. A win for Union SG had a probability of 30.4% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.18%) and 0-2 (7.36%). The likeliest Union SG win was 1-0 (7.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
Union SGDrawAjax
30.4% (0.097000000000001 0.1) 24.87% (0.041999999999998 0.04) 44.74% (-0.143 -0.14)
Both teams to score 56.34% (-0.084000000000003 -0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.31% (-0.137 -0.14)46.69% (0.13500000000001 0.14)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.05% (-0.129 -0.13)68.95% (0.12700000000001 0.13)
Union SG Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.25% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)28.75% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.41% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)64.59% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)
Ajax Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.08% (-0.11999999999999 -0.12)20.92% (0.118 0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.35% (-0.186 -0.19)53.65% (0.183 0.18)
Score Analysis
    Union SG 30.4%
    Ajax 44.74%
    Draw 24.86%
Union SGDrawAjax
1-0 @ 7.5% (0.042 0.04)
2-1 @ 7.31% (0.015 0.01)
2-0 @ 4.67% (0.027 0.03)
3-1 @ 3.04% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.38% (-0.004 -0)
3-0 @ 1.94% (0.011 0.01)
4-1 @ 0.95% (0.001 0)
Other @ 2.62%
Total : 30.4%
1-1 @ 11.72% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
0-0 @ 6.02% (0.034 0.03)
2-2 @ 5.72% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.24% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 24.86%
0-1 @ 9.41% (0.019 0.02)
1-2 @ 9.18% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
0-2 @ 7.36% (-0.011 -0.01)
1-3 @ 4.79% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
0-3 @ 3.84% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.98% (-0.015 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.87% (-0.017 -0.02)
0-4 @ 1.5% (-0.014 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.17% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 2.65%
Total : 44.74%

How you voted: Union SG vs Ajax

Union SG
32.2%
Draw
20.3%
Ajax
47.5%
177
rhs 2.0
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