Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Jun 20, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Laugardalsvollur

Iceland
0 - 1
Portugal

Finnbogason (45+1'), Gudmundsson (45'), Thor Willumsson (70'), Dagur Thorsteinsson (74')
Thor Willumsson (80')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Ronaldo (89')
Dalot (27'), Silva (74'), Ronaldo (83')

Cristiano Ronaldo scores late winner in record-breaking 200th Portugal match

Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo scores an 89th-minute winner on his record-breaking night as he becomes the first-ever men's player to earn 200 international caps in Tuesday's Euro 2024 qualifying win over Iceland.

Jun 20, 23:15

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Iceland and Portugal, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Portugal could line up for Tuesday's Euro 2024 qualifying Group J clash with Iceland.

Form, Standings, Stats

Iceland

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Iceland 1-2 Slovakia
Saturday, June 17 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group J Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	3	13	9
2	Slovakia	3	3	7
3	Luxembourg	3	-4	4
4	Iceland	3	3	3
5	Bosnia-Herzegovina	3	-2	3
6	Liechtenstein	3	-13	0

Portugal

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Portugal 3-0 Bosnia H'vina
Saturday, June 17 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group J Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	3	13	9
2	Slovakia	3	3	7
3	Luxembourg	3	-4	4
4	Iceland	3	3	3
5	Bosnia-Herzegovina	3	-2	3
6	Liechtenstein	3	-13	0

Still finding their feet under Hareide, Iceland ought to become the next victims of Portugal's ruthless attack and dogged defence in front of their own supporters this week. It remains to be seen how Martinez's men would cope against stiffer opposition, but for the time being, the Selecao should continue their perfect start and move ever closer to a place in next year's finals. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 71.21%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for Iceland had a probability of 10.42%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.9%) and 0-3 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.67%), while for a Iceland win it was 1-0 (4.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portugal would win this match.

Result
Iceland	Draw	Portugal
10.42% ( -33.51)	18.37% ( -3.34)	71.21% ( 36.85)

Both teams to score 43.13% (

-26.66)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.18% (

-16.99)

46.83% (

16.99)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.92% (

-18.09)

69.08% (

18.09)

Iceland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

48.92% (

-36.58)

51.08% (

36.58)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.61% (

-42.89)

85.39% (

42.9)

Portugal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.16% (

6.54)

11.84% (

-6.54)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.89% (

12.41)

37.11% (

-12.4)

Score Analysis

Iceland 10.42%

Portugal 71.2%

Draw 18.37%

Iceland	Draw	Portugal
1-0 @ 4.07% ( -1.08) 2-1 @ 2.91% ( -5.5) 2-0 @ 1.37% ( -3.6) Other @ 2.08% Total : 10.42%	1-1 @ 8.67% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 6.05% ( 3.39) 2-2 @ 3.11% ( -4.02) Other @ 0.54% Total : 18.37%	0-2 @ 13.76% ( 9.94) 0-1 @ 12.9% ( 8.39) 0-3 @ 9.79% ( 7.63) 1-2 @ 9.25% ( 1.87) 1-3 @ 6.58% ( 2.41) 0-4 @ 5.22% ( 4.31) 1-4 @ 3.51% ( 1.74) 0-5 @ 2.23% ( 1.92) 2-3 @ 2.21% ( -1.82) 1-5 @ 1.5% ( 0.9) 2-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.53) Other @ 3.08% Total : 71.2%