Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bosnia-Herzegovina win with a probability of 50.71%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Iceland had a probability of 21.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bosnia-Herzegovina win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.01%) and 2-1 (8.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.45%), while for a Iceland win it was 0-1 (9.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bosnia-Herzegovina would win this match.
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