Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Semi-Finals

Mar 21, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Stadion Slaski

Poland
5 - 1
Estonia

Frankowski (22'), Zielinski (50'), Piotrowski (70'), Mets (73' og.), Szymanski (76')
Puchacz (60')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Vetkal (78')
Paskotsi (15')
Paskotsi (27')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Poland and Estonia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Poland

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Poland 2-0 Latvia
Tuesday, November 21 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Albania	8	8	15
2	Czech Republic	8	6	15
3	Poland	8	0	11
4	Moldova	8	-3	10
5	Faroe Islands	8	-11	2

Estonia

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Sweden 2-1 Estonia
Friday, January 12 at 6pm in International Friendlies

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Belgium	8	18	20
2	Austria	8	10	19
3	Sweden	8	2	10
4	Azerbaijan	8	-10	7
5	Estonia	8	-20	1

To say that Estonia earned a golden ticket to the Euro 2024 playoffs would be an understatement, and the gulf in quality between the two clubs should be apparent from the get-go. The visitors may have pulled off a giant killing of Poland 12 years ago, but with the Eagles recently proving to be an unbeatable force at home in Euros qualifiers, a straightforward passage to the final should await the hosts on Thursday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Poland win with a probability of 70.77%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for Estonia had a probability of 9.52%.

The most likely scoreline for a Poland win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.6%) and 3-0 (10.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.82%), while for a Estonia win it was 0-1 (4.53%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Poland would win this match.

Result
Poland	Draw	Estonia
70.77% ( 0.61)	19.71% ( -0.12)	9.52% ( -0.49)

Both teams to score 36.25% (

-1.3)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.52% (

-0.77)

54.47% (

0.77)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.16% (

-0.65)

75.83% (

0.65)

Poland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.72% (

-0.06)

14.27% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.93% (

-0.11)

42.06% (

0.11)

Estonia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

42.29% (

-1.49)

57.71% (

1.49)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

10.56% (

-0.84)

89.43% (

0.84)

Score Analysis

Poland 70.74%

Estonia 9.52%

Draw 19.71%

Poland	Draw	Estonia
1-0 @ 16.03% ( 0.44) 2-0 @ 15.6% ( 0.4) 3-0 @ 10.12% ( 0.23) 2-1 @ 8.58% ( -0.18) 3-1 @ 5.57% ( -0.13) 4-0 @ 4.93% ( 0.11) 4-1 @ 2.71% ( -0.07) 5-0 @ 1.92% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.11) 5-1 @ 1.06% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.7% Total : 70.74%	1-1 @ 8.82% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 8.24% ( 0.24) 2-2 @ 2.36% ( -0.16) Other @ 0.3% Total : 19.71%	0-1 @ 4.53% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 2.42% ( -0.16) 0-2 @ 1.25% ( -0.08) Other @ 1.32% Total : 9.52%