One of the biggest mismatches in the Euro 2024 qualifying playoffs takes place at the Stadion Narodowy in Warsaw on Thursday evening, as Poland take on Estonia in their Path A semi-final.
Either Wales or Finland will await the victors of this tie in next Tuesday's final, where a spot in a daunting Group D alongside France, the Netherlands and Austria in the final tournament will be at stake.
Match preview
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Present at every European Championships since 2008 - albeit with just one knockout appearance to their name from Euro 2016 - Poland well and truly underwhelmed in their qualification period for this summer's tournament under the previous era of Fernando Santos.
The former Portugal head coach - who masterminded the Selecao's run to continental glory in 2016 - left his post in September after overseeing three defeats from Poland's first five Euro 2024 qualifiers, but the ship was steadied under Michal Probierz, who is still unbeaten since taking charge.
Two draws and a win from their final three matches in Group E was not enough to pip either Albania or the Czech Republic to one of the two top spots, but thanks to their performance in the top tier of the Nations League, a third-place finish saw Poland fall into the safety net of the playoffs.
Eleven points from a possible 24 still represents a dissatisfactory tally for a nation of the Eagles' stature, though, but they made light work of Latvia in their final fixture of 2023, where Przemyslaw Frankowski and Robert Lewandowski struck in a 2-0 friendly win.
Furthermore, a magnificent run of home form in Euros qualifiers has seen Poland string together a 20-match unbeaten run in such fixtures on their own turf - winning 15 of them while drawing another five - since being beaten 3-1 by Finland all the way back in September 2006.
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While Poland at least managed to nab a podium position in their qualification section, Estonia's Group F run was best consigned to the back pages of the history books, as they only managed to glean a paltry one point from eight matches against Belgium, Sweden, Azerbaijan and Austria.
Despite finishing rock bottom of the section with a mere two goals scored and 22 let in at the other end of the field, the world's 123rd-ranked nation will have a second bite at the cherry thanks to their unblemished Nations League run, where they earned promotion to League C with four wins from four against fellow minnows San Marino and Malta.
Unsurprisingly, Estonia are the only team present in the playoffs that finished last in their Euro 2024 qualifying group, and the Blueshirts travel to Warsaw winless in 11 matches across all tournaments since eking out a 1-0 friendly victory over Finland in January 2023.
Nine of Estonia's subsequent 11 games have ended in defeat - including each of their last three to Austria and Sweden (twice) - and not since triumphing in Northern Ireland in 2011 have the visitors won a European Championships qualifier away from home.
As such, the writing already appears to be on the wall for a team who have never made it to the Euros finals as an independent nation, but they stunned Poland in a 1-0 friendly win during their most recent encounter in 2012, prior to which the Eagles had prevailed in seven of their first eight meetings.
Team News
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Few surprises were sprung in Poland's selection for the Euro 2024 playoffs, but Juventus striker Arkadiusz Milik is not involved, having sustained an adductor injury which could keep him out for a couple of weeks.
With Milik out of contention, Adam Buksa and Krzysztof Piatek will fight for the right to start alongside Lewandowski, whose strike against Latvia in November was his 82nd for his country, extending his unassailable lead at the top of their scoring charts.
An 80th cap should come the way of experienced goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny after the Juventus number one dropped down to the bench against Latvia, where Lukasz Skorupski and debutant Marcin Bulka rotated in between the sticks.
As far as Estonia are concerned, head coach Thomas Haberli is working with a vastly different selection to January's friendly loss to Sweden, where almost all of his troops called up were based in their homeland.
A more internationally broad selection includes Arsenal's third-choice goalkeeper Karl Hein, who will win his 28th cap for the Blueshirts this week, ex-Liverpool defender Ragnar Klavan - called up for the first time since 2022 - and Grasshoppers defender Maksim Paskotsi, once of Tottenham Hotspur.
Captain Konstantin Vassiljev scored Estonia's winner in their 1-0 beating of Poland 12 years ago, and the 39-year-old could now etch his name into another piece of national folklore; he needs just one more cap to draw level with all-time record holder Martin Reim on 157.
Poland possible starting lineup:
Szczesny; Bereszynski, Bednarek, Kiwior; Cash, Zielinski, S. Szymanski, D. Szymanski, Frankowski; Lewandowski, Piatek
Estonia possible starting lineup:
Hein; Klavan, Mets, Paskotsi; Peetson, Poom, Vassiljev, Pikk; Sinyavskiy, Anier; Jurgens
We say: Poland 4-0 Estonia
To say that Estonia earned a golden ticket to the Euro 2024 playoffs would be an understatement, and the gulf in quality between the two clubs should be apparent from the get-go.
The visitors may have pulled off a giant killing of Poland 12 years ago, but with the Eagles recently proving to be an unbeatable force at home in Euros qualifiers, a straightforward passage to the final should await the hosts on Thursday.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Ben Knapton
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