Euro 2024

European Championship | Group Stage

Jun 24, 2024 at 8pm UK

Red Bull Arena

Croatia
vs.
Italy

Data Analysis

Coverage of the European Championship Group Stage clash between Croatia and Italy.

Form, Standings, Stats

Croatia

All competitions

European Championship

Last Game: Croatia 2-2 Albania
Wednesday, June 19 at 2pm in European Championship

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Spain	2	4	6
2	Italy	2	0	3
3	Albania	2	-1	1
4	Croatia	2	-3	1

Italy

All competitions

European Championship

Last Game: Spain 1-0 Italy
Thursday, June 20 at 8pm in European Championship

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Spain	2	4	6
2	Italy	2	0	3
3	Albania	2	-1	1
4	Croatia	2	-3	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Italy win with a probability of 37.88%. A win for Croatia has a probability of 36.63% and a draw has a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win is 0-1 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.4%) and 0-2 (6.15%). The likeliest Croatia win is 1-0 (8.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.05%).

Result
Croatia	Draw	Italy
36.63% ( 4.11)	25.49% ( 0.21)	37.88% ( -4.32)

Both teams to score 56% (

0.11)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.08% (

-0.22)

47.92% (

0.22)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.9% (

-0.2)

70.09% (

0.2)

Croatia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.49% (

2.35)

25.51% (

-2.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.64% (

3.11)

60.36% (

-3.11)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.18% (

-2.3)

24.82% (

2.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.59% (

-3.32)

59.41% (

3.32)

Score Analysis

Croatia 36.63%

Italy 37.88%

Draw 25.49%

Croatia	Draw	Italy
1-0 @ 8.65% ( 0.63) 2-1 @ 8.23% ( 0.6) 2-0 @ 5.91% ( 0.79) 3-1 @ 3.75% ( 0.5) 3-0 @ 2.69% ( 0.51) 3-2 @ 2.61% ( 0.19) 4-1 @ 1.28% ( 0.24) 4-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.22) Other @ 2.59% Total : 36.63%	1-1 @ 12.05% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 6.33% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 5.74% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.49%	0-1 @ 8.82% ( -0.53) 1-2 @ 8.4% ( -0.51) 0-2 @ 6.15% ( -0.82) 1-3 @ 3.9% ( -0.53) 0-3 @ 2.86% ( -0.61) 2-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.16) 1-4 @ 1.36% ( -0.29) 0-4 @ 1% ( -0.3) 2-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.13) Other @ 1.81% Total : 37.88%