FA Cup

FA Cup | First Round

Nov 6, 2021 at 3pm UK

Alexandra Stadium

Crewe
0 - 3
Swindon

Robertson (79')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Reed (25'), Simpson (52'), Payne (79')
Williams (38'), Reed (75')

Coverage of the FA Cup First Round clash between Crewe Alexandra and Swindon Town.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 53.93%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 23.28% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.4%) and 0-2 (8.66%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 2-1 (6.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.

Result
Crewe Alexandra	Draw	Swindon Town
23.28%	22.8%	53.93%

Both teams to score 57.05%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.11%

42.88%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.71%

65.29%

Crewe Alexandra Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.81%

32.19%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.32%

68.68%

Swindon Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.14%

15.86%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.94%

45.06%

Score Analysis

Crewe Alexandra 23.28%

Swindon Town 53.93%

Draw 22.79%

Crewe Alexandra	Draw	Swindon Town
2-1 @ 6.04% 1-0 @ 5.79% 2-0 @ 3.28% 3-1 @ 2.28% 3-2 @ 2.1% 3-0 @ 1.24% Other @ 2.55% Total : 23.28%	1-1 @ 10.65% 2-2 @ 5.56% 0-0 @ 5.11% 3-3 @ 1.29% Other @ 0.18% Total : 22.79%	1-2 @ 9.81% 0-1 @ 9.4% 0-2 @ 8.66% 1-3 @ 6.02% 0-3 @ 5.31% 2-3 @ 3.41% 1-4 @ 2.77% 0-4 @ 2.45% 2-4 @ 1.57% 1-5 @ 1.02% 0-5 @ 0.9% Other @ 2.6% Total : 53.93%