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Danish Superliga | Gameweek 25

Jun 1, 2020 at 3pm UK

MCH Arena

Midtjylland
0 - 1
Horsens

Onyeka (54'), Sviatchenko (77')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Prip (36')
Gemmer (66')

Preview: FC Midtjylland vs. AC Horsens - prediction, form guide, head to head

By Daniel Lewis, Senior Reporter | 30 May 2020

Sports Mole previews Monday's Danish top-flight clash between FC Midtjylland and AC Horsens, including predictions, form guide and head-to-head records.

FC Midtjylland resume their Danish Superliga title charge with a home match against AC Horsens at the MCH Arena on Monday.

The league leaders are 12 points clear of Copenhagen with two rounds of regular-season fixtures to play, while Horsens are 10th after beating the reigning champions in their last outing.

Match preview

A general shot of MCH Arena, the home of FC Midtjylland, in September 2015 © Reuters

Midtjylland were in dominant form prior to the Danish top flight's coronavirus-enforced shutdown, winning 12 of their last 13 matches - the exception being a 3-1 loss to Aarhus.

The most recent of those victories came against Randers on March 8 when Frank Onyeka and Evander were both on target in a straightforward 2-0 win.

What makes that run all the more remarkable is that they did not concede in any of their four games after the winter break.

Little did last season's runners-up realise then, though, was that it would be close to three months before they were next in competitive action.

Brian Priske will be hoping that his side can hit the ground running, with just two more matches to play in the regular season - at home to Horsens and away at Nordsjaelland.

Midtjylland moved above Copenhagen into top spot on matchweek eight and have stayed there ever since, the gap only widening following a shock loss for the reigning champions last time out.

That defeat came at the hands of Horsens thanks to a late goal from Alexander Ludwig, ending a three match losing run for Bo Henriksen's men.

Despite that impressive win a couple of months back, however, Horsens cannot finish any higher than eighth, meaning that they will contest in the relegation round.

Points carry over from the regular season, so the Yellow Danger will be looking to at least climb a couple of places over the next week or so.

Getting any points on the board on Monday will be a huge ask, though, as they have lost six and drawn three of their last 10 away league matches.

Midtjylland's Superliga form: WLWWWW

Horsens' Superliga form: DWLLLW

Head To Head

Midtjylland won the reverse fixture 2-0 in August through a couple of goals from Sory Kaba either side of half time.

That extended the Wolves' winning streak against Horsens to 12 matches, each of those coming in the league in a run stretching back to a 2-2 draw in July 2012.

We say: FC Midtjylland 2-0 AC Horsens

Horsens beat reigning champions Copenhagen in their most recent match, but Midtjylland have been on a different level to the rest of the division this term. Even accounting for the extended hiatus, the hosts will be confident of stretching their winning run in this fixture.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Midtjylland win with a probability of 70.57%. A draw had a probability of 17.6% and a win for AC Horsens had a probability of 11.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a FC Midtjylland win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.07%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.33%), while for an AC Horsens win it was 0-1 (3.61%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.