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Milan logo
Coppa Italia | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg
Apr 2, 2025 at 8pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Inter logo

AC Milan
vs.
Inter Milan

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Coppa Italia semi-final first leg between AC Milan and Inter Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Napoli 2-1 AC Milan
Sunday, March 30 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: Inter Milan 2-1 Udinese
Sunday, March 30 at 5pm in Serie A

We say: AC Milan 1-2 Inter Milan

The gulf between these two Milan giants is evidenced by even a brief glance at the league table, though the Rossoneri have held the upper hand in this season's derbies so far. In-form Inter are set to win game four of five, though, as they are producing consistent results while their rivals are in disarray. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Inter Milan win with a probability of 38.15%. A win for AC Milan has a probability of 36.83% and a draw has a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win is 1-2 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (8.32%) and 0-2 (5.99%). The likeliest AC Milan win is 2-1 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.74%).

Result
AC MilanDrawInter Milan
36.83% (-0.499 -0.5) 25.02% (0.333 0.33) 38.15% (0.164 0.16)
Both teams to score 57.69% (-1.229 -1.23)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.26% (-1.577 -1.58)45.74% (1.575 1.58)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.94% (-1.518 -1.52)68.06% (1.514 1.51)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.6% (-0.986 -0.99)24.4% (0.983 0.98)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.19% (-1.41 -1.41)58.81% (1.407 1.41)
Inter Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.31% (-0.626 -0.63)23.69% (0.622 0.62)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.19% (-0.907 -0.91)57.8% (0.903 0.9)
Score Analysis
    AC Milan 36.83%
    Inter Milan 38.15%
    Draw 25.02%
AC MilanDrawInter Milan
2-1 @ 8.28% (-0.067 -0.07)
1-0 @ 8.15% (0.312 0.31)
2-0 @ 5.75% (0.059 0.06)
3-1 @ 3.9% (-0.146 -0.15)
3-2 @ 2.81% (-0.159 -0.16)
3-0 @ 2.71% (-0.05 -0.05)
4-1 @ 1.37% (-0.093 -0.09)
4-2 @ 0.99% (-0.087 -0.09)
4-0 @ 0.95% (-0.046 -0.05)
Other @ 1.92%
Total : 36.83%
1-1 @ 11.74% (0.24 0.24)
2-2 @ 5.96% (-0.159 -0.16)
0-0 @ 5.78% (0.379 0.38)
3-3 @ 1.35% (-0.103 -0.1)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 25.02%
1-2 @ 8.46% (0.02 0.02)
0-1 @ 8.32% (0.401 0.4)
0-2 @ 5.99% (0.184 0.18)
1-3 @ 4.06% (-0.065 -0.06)
0-3 @ 2.88% (0.037 0.04)
2-3 @ 2.86% (-0.131 -0.13)
1-4 @ 1.46% (-0.051 -0.05)
0-4 @ 1.04% (-0.006 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.03% (-0.067 -0.07)
Other @ 2.06%
Total : 38.15%

Who will win Wednesday's Coppa Italia clash between AC Milan and Inter Milan?

AC Milan
Draw
Inter Milan
AC Milan
23.4%
Draw
9.7%
Inter Milan
66.9%
124
Head to Head
Feb 2, 2025 5pm
Gameweek 23
AC Milan
1-1
Inter Milan
Reijnders (45')
De Vrij (90+3')
Bastoni (53'), Dumfries (61')
Jan 6, 2025 7pm
Final
Inter Milan
2-3
AC Milan
Martinez (45+1'), Taremi (47')
Mkhitaryan (51'), Dumfries (54'), Barella (72'), Bastoni (89')
Hernandez (52'), Pulisic (80'), Abraham (90+3')
Tomori (57')
Sep 22, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 5
Inter Milan
1-2
AC Milan
Dimarco (28')
Mkhitaryan (19'), Calhanoglu (40'), Inzaghi (68'), Asllani (86'), Dimarco (88')
Pulisic (10'), Gabbia (89')
Fofana (38')
Apr 22, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 33
AC Milan
1-2
Inter Milan
Tomori (80')
Hernandez (36'), Tomori (90+2'), Gabbia (90')
Hernandez (90+3'), Calabria (90+7')
Acerbi (18'), Thuram (49')
Barella (22'), Inzaghi (23'), Martinez (32')
Dumfries (90+3')
Sep 16, 2023 5pm
Gameweek 4
Inter Milan
5-1
AC Milan
Mkhitaryan (5', 69'), Thuram (38'), Calhanoglu (79' pen.), Frattesi (90+3')
Calhanoglu (72'), Frattesi (90+4')
Leao (57')
Thiaw (24'), Hernandez (61')
rhs 2.0
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3Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest30176750351557
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5Manchester CityMan City29146955401548
6Newcastle UnitedNewcastle2814594738947
7Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton29121164842647
8Fulham3012994440445
9Aston Villa2912984145-445
10Bournemouth29128948361244
11Brentford29125125045541
12Crystal Palace2810993633339
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd30107133741-437
14Tottenham HotspurSpurs291041555431234
15Everton2971393236-434
16West Ham UnitedWest Ham3097143350-1734
17Wolverhampton WanderersWolves3085174158-1729
18Ipswich TownIpswich2938182862-3417
19Leicester CityLeicester2945202565-4017
20Southampton2923242170-499


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