Matchday three of the 2021-22 Eredivisie season gets underway on Friday when Fortuna Sittard play host to RKC Waalwijk.
The teams are level on points ahead of the meeting in Sittard-Geleen and are separated by just one place in the standings.
Match preview
Following a remarkable opening-day victory over AZ Alkmaar, Waalwijk suffered a 3-2 defeat in their second game of the season against Heerenveen at the Abe Lenstra Stadion on Saturday.
Joseph Oosting's men found themselves three down at half time thanks to Henk Veerman's brace either side of a Tibor Halilovic strike but nearly completed a second-half comeback after Jens Odgaard and Richard van der Venne both registered in the final 20 minutes.
That defeat away from home was in keeping with RKC's struggles over the last 12 months in which only two of their 18 matches on the road have ended in victories.
Awaiting them next is a trip to a ground where they have lost each of their last three outings across all competitions.
Overall, Friday's visitors are without a win in the last five encounters against the hosts since a 3-0 triumph back in 2017.
Fortuna Sittard were denied an opportunity to make it two wins from two as their meeting with AZ Alkmaar initially scheduled for last Sunday got called off.
Sjors Ultee's men had started their Eredivisie campaign with a 2-1 victory over FC Twente on the opening weekend.
Trailing at half time, the Fortunezen rallied in the second half to claim all three points courtesy of goals from Mats Seuntjens and Toshio Lake.
Following a poor home form last term where only the relegated trio of Emmen, ADO Den Haag and VVV-Venlo picked up fewer points, Friday's hosts are now looking to record a second win on the bounce to start the new season.
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Team News
Midfielder Ben Rienstra is not expected to be available for the home side as he continues to battle with a heart problem.
Lisandro Semedo will also sit out the match due to an ankle injury he sustained in action for the Cape Verde national team.
George Cox was forced off with a minor injury in Fortuna's season-opener, and the 23-year-old is a doubt for Friday's contest.
Having come off the bench to good effect last time out, Jens Odgaard is in line to make his first Waalwijk start since his loan move from Italian outfit Sassuolo last month.
Fortuna Sittard possible starting lineup:
Van Osch; Duarte, Janssen, Angha, Rota; Hansson, Tekie, Ferati; Musaba, Seuntjens, Baghdadi
RKC Waalwijk possible starting lineup:
Pereira; Lutonda, Touba, Meulensteen, Gaari; Buttner, Azhil, Van der Venne; Odgaard, Bakari, Kramer
We say: Fortuna Sittard 2-1 RKC Waalwijk
The teams are closely matched in terms of squad quality and either one of them could emerge victorious in this one. However, we are backing the hosts to edge their visitors, albeit by only a narrow margin.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Sittard win with a probability of 46.04%. A win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 29.7% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Sittard win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.93%) and 2-0 (7.32%). The likeliest RKC Waalwijk win was 1-2 (7.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.
