MX23RW : Tuesday, November 19 06:45:07| >> :120:51958:51958:
[monks data]
Gent
Conference League | Last 16 | 2nd Leg
Mar 17, 2022 at 8pm UK
GHELAMCO-arena
PAOK

Gent
1 - 2
PAOK

Depoitre (40')
Odjidja-Ofoe (32'), Owusu (71')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Angel Crespo (20'), Douglas (77')
Paschalakis (28'), Colak (87')

Preview: Gent vs. PAOK - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Gent and PAOK, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

PAOK will travel to Gent for the second leg of their Europa Conference League last 16 tie, which takes place at the Ghelamco Arena on Thursday.

The advantage lies with the visitors ahead of the contest after PAOK claimed a narrow 1-0 victory in Greece last week.


Match preview

Gent coach Hein Vanhaezebrouck on November 25, 2021© Reuters

Gent will have to overturn a one-goal deficit from the first leg if they are to continue their journey in the Europa Conference League.

A cagey game in Thessaloniki was decided by a second-half strike from Jasmin Kurtic, with the 1-0 loss representing Gent's only defeat in their last eight games in all competitions.

The Buffalos returned to winning ways at the weekend with Julian De Sart and Darko Lemajic grabbing a goal apiece to guide their side to a 2-0 away victory over Beerschot.

Including the qualifying round, Gent are unbeaten in their six home Europa Conference League matches this season, with four of those encounters ending in victory.

The hosts will be further boosted by their last two home results, with Gent thrashing RFC Seraing 4-0 before claiming a narrow 2-1 victory over Zulte Waregem.

PAOK's Stefan Schwab celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates on December 9, 2021© Reuters

PAOK may hold the advantage ahead of the second leg in Belgium, but with the lead a slender one, the Greek Super League side will know that they have a lot of work still to do if they are to reach the quarter-final stage.

They have, however, already prevailed in a close-fought tie against Midtjylland after winning on penalties in the knockout playoff round to set up their tie with Gent.

Although, they did lose the away leg against Midtjylland by a 1-0 scoreline and a repeat of that result on Thursday would see the contest head to extra time.

The visitors will carry momentum into Thursday's encounter after Chuba Akpom scoring a stoppage-time winner to help his side win 1-0 against PAS Gianna in the Greek Super League at the weekend.

Razvan Lucescu will be hoping his side can draw inspiration from the fact that they are unbeaten in their last five competitive matches against Belgian opposition.

Gent Europa Conference League form:
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L

Gent form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W

PAOK Europa Conference League form:
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W

PAOK form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W



Team News

PAOK's Andrija Zivkovic celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on February 24, 2022© Reuters

The hosts are still without the services of Gianni Bruno, who has not featured since January due to injury issues.

Despite scoring at the weekend, Lemajic will be replaced in the frontline by Laurent Depoitre who has scored 10 goals in all competitions this season.

Jordan Torunarigha was introduced at half time in the first leg and the defender is expected to start in a back three on Thursday.

As for the visitors, they are unable to call upon the services of injured duo Nelson Oliveira and Fernando Varela.

Kurtic and Andrija Zivkovic will also miss out, with the pair set to serve one-match suspensions for an accumulation of yellow cards.

After scoring the winner at the weekend, Akpom is expected to return to the starting lineup for the second leg.

Gent possible starting lineup:
Roefe; Hanche-Olsen, Ngadeu, Torunarigha; Samoise, Kums, De Sart, Castro-Montes; Odjidja-Ofoe, Hjulsager, Depoitre

PAOK possible starting lineup:
Paschalakis; Lyratzis, Ingason, Crespo, Vieirinha; Tsingaras, Augusto; Murg, Biseswar, Mitrita; Akpom


SM words green background

We say: Gent 1-1 PAOK

Like their first leg, we expect Thursday's encounter to be a closely-fought contest, but PAOK have proven to be a tough team to beat after losing once in their last 22 games in all competitions, and we think that the visitors will do enough to progress to the quarter finals.


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gent win with a probability of 37.92%. A win for PAOK had a probability of 37.35% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gent win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.96%) and 2-0 (5.82%). The likeliest PAOK win was 1-2 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Gent vs PAOK

Gent
59.0%
Draw
16.7%
PAOK
24.4%
78
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