These were two of the strongest teams in the region a few years ago, but neither have looked nearly as sharp over the past year or so.
Playing without Quioto could be challenging for Honduras, who rely heavily on the CF Montreal attacker, and we expect the experienced Mexican backline to have an easier time shutting down Los Catrachos, while their attack should be able to break through against an inexperienced defensive unit.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 74.84%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for Honduras had a probability of 7.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 2-0 with a probability of 17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (16.64%) and 3-0 (11.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (8.14%), while for a Honduras win it was 0-1 (3.78%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mexico would win this match.
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