CONCACAF Nations League | Semi-Finals

Jun 16, 2023 at 3am UK

Allianz Stadium

USA
3 - 0
Mexico

Pulisic (37', 46'), Pepi (78')
Robinson (60'), Robinson (63'), Richards (86'), Pulisic (89')
McKennie (71'), Dest (85')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Uriel (36'), Reyes (59'), Gimenez (60'), Alvarez (85'), Ochoa (86')
Montes (69'), Arteaga (85')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's CONCACAF Nations League clash between USA and Mexico, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

USA

All competitions

CONCACAF Nations League

Last Game: USA 1-1 Mexico
Thursday, April 20 at 3am in International Friendlies

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	England	3	7	7
2	USA	3	1	5
3	Iran	3	-3	3
4	Wales	3	-5	1

Mexico

All competitions

CONCACAF Nations League

Last Game: Mexico 2-2 Cameroon
Sunday, June 11 at 3am in International Friendlies

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	3	3	6
2	Poland	3	0	4
3	Mexico	3	-1	4
4	Saudi Arabia	3	-2	3

We certainly expect a hard-fought and close encounter in this semi-final tie, but USA boast slightly more quality ahead of the showdown in Nevada, given the losses in the Mexican squad, and we anticipate the Stars and Stripes coming out on top on home soil and advancing in their bid to make it two triumphant Nations League campaigns in a row. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 39.32%. A win for Mexico had a probability of 31.85% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.9%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Mexico win was 0-1 (11.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that USA would win this match.

Result
USA	Draw	Mexico
39.32% ( 0.54)	28.83% ( 0.34)	31.85% ( -0.89)

Both teams to score 44.88% (

-1.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.4% (

-1.34)

61.6% (

1.34)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.56% (

-1.01)

81.44% (

1.01)

USA Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.49% (

-0.35)

30.51% (

0.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.27% (

-0.41)

66.73% (

0.41)

Mexico Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.58% (

-1.35)

35.41% (

1.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.82% (

-1.43)

72.18% (

1.43)

Score Analysis

USA 39.31%

Mexico 31.85%

Draw 28.82%

USA	Draw	Mexico
1-0 @ 12.82% ( 0.51) 2-1 @ 7.9% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 7.61% ( 0.23) 3-1 @ 3.13% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 3.01% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 1.62% ( -0.09) 4-1 @ 0.93% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.28% Total : 39.31%	1-1 @ 13.31% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 10.8% ( 0.53) 2-2 @ 4.1% ( -0.18) Other @ 0.61% Total : 28.82%	0-1 @ 11.21% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 6.91% ( -0.23) 0-2 @ 5.82% ( -0.14) 1-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.17) 0-3 @ 2.01% ( -0.13) 2-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.12) Other @ 2.08% Total : 31.85%