Friendlies 1

Apr 20, 2023 at 3am UK

Robert F. Kennedy Memorial Stadium

USA
1 - 1
Mexico

Ferreira (81')
Sonora (69'), Zimmerman (89'), Acosta (90+2')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Uriel (55')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's friendly clash between USA and Mexico, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

USA

All competitions

Last Game: USA 1-0 El Salvador
Tuesday, March 28 at 12.30am in CONCACAF Nations League

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	England	3	7	7
2	USA	3	1	5
3	Iran	3	-3	3
4	Wales	3	-5	1

Mexico

All competitions

Last Game: Mexico 2-2 Jamaica
Monday, March 27 at 1am in CONCACAF Nations League

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	3	3	6
2	Poland	3	0	4
3	Mexico	3	-1	4
4	Saudi Arabia	3	-2	3

There are some big games this summer for these teams, but given their rivalry, we still expect a tight, heated encounter for this midweek clash. We may not see the best American players on the field or the bench for this match, but they have a little more international experience than those who will feature for El Tri, and that along with the psychological edge they have on them at the moment could make the difference in this encounter. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 36.37%. A win for Mexico had a probability of 35.76% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.82%) and 2-0 (6.63%). The likeliest Mexico win was 0-1 (11.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.

Result
USA	Draw	Mexico
36.37% ( 1.55)	27.87% ( 0.03)	35.76% ( -1.57)

Both teams to score 48.19% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.24% (

-0.05)

57.76% (

0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.5% (

-0.04)

78.5% (

0.04)

USA Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.61% (

0.96)

30.39% (

-0.96)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.42% (

1.13)

66.58% (

-1.13)

Mexico Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.23% (

-1)

30.77% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.97% (

-1.19)

67.04% (

1.19)

Score Analysis

USA 36.36%

Mexico 35.76%

Draw 27.86%

USA	Draw	Mexico
1-0 @ 11.13% ( 0.31) 2-1 @ 7.82% ( 0.21) 2-0 @ 6.63% ( 0.35) 3-1 @ 3.1% ( 0.16) 3-0 @ 2.63% ( 0.21) 3-2 @ 1.83% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 0.92% ( 0.07) Other @ 2.29% Total : 36.36%	1-1 @ 13.12% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.35% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.61% ( -0) Other @ 0.79% Total : 27.86%	0-1 @ 11.02% ( -0.28) 1-2 @ 7.74% ( -0.21) 0-2 @ 6.5% ( -0.36) 1-3 @ 3.04% ( -0.17) 0-3 @ 2.55% ( -0.22) 2-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.05) Other @ 3.11% Total : 35.76%