CONCACAF Nations League | Third-Place Playoff
Jun 18, 2023 at 11pm UK
Allianz Stadium
Panama0 - 1Mexico
We said: Panama 0-2 Mexico
Even though a medal would mean a lot more to the Panamanians than it would to Mexico, we are tipping El Tri to come out on top because of their experience and impressive track record against Los Canaleros. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 41.14%. A win for Panama had a probability of 38.29% and a draw had a probability of 20.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.06%) and 2-3 (5.02%). The likeliest Panama win was 2-1 (7.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 2-2 (7.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mexico would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Panama | Draw | Mexico |
| 38.29% | 20.57% | 41.14% |
| Both teams to score 75.25% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
