After a surprise draw in their own backyard, Mexico return to the Azteca on Sunday when they host Honduras in their fifth World Cup 2022 qualifying game.
El Tri were held 1-1 for a second consecutive match in this campaign, while the Hondurans collected their third point of this round, playing to a scoreless draw with Costa Rica.
Match preview
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A comfortable opening two games for the Mexicans saw the top-seeded team in CONCACAF coast to six points and first place in the Octagonal phase of qualifying.
However, in their last two fixtures, we have seen some flaws in their game as they struggled to press their opponents in Panama City and appeared to hang back, allowing a lot of space to the Canadians in midfield earlier this week.
On Sunday, we should see a more aggressive approach from Gerardo Martino and his side, especially given that the Hondurans do not possess the same kind of speed as Canada, while the Mexicans have not conceded a goal in their last six home fixtures against La H.
Even with a pair of minor setbacks, Mexico are still in one of the best positions to qualify with eight points, which puts them in a tie for first alongside the USA.
The Mexicans are most effective when they can get their midfield passing going, and that is an area of their game that El Tri have gotten away from recently.
While they have not been poor defensively in their previous four games, we have seen opposing sides find a few more openings against them than usual, with Mexico conceding more goals in these qualifiers (three) than they gave up in the entire CONCACAF Gold Cup (two).
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We saw a lot more ambition in the Hondurans versus Costa Rica, but their final touch continued to let them down as they remain winless after four matches.
Playing in front of their raucous fans in San Pedro, we saw them play with more intensity than in their opening three games, holding 68% possession but failing to test Keylor Navas.
Fabian Coito played with an interesting 4-5-1 formation which created more scoring opportunities, with his players winning a lot of balls in the middle of the pitch but not getting into many dangerous areas.
Even though they are on the outside of the qualifying picture at the moment, tied with Costa Rica for sixth, Los Catrachos were in a similar position during their 2018 campaign, collecting only four points from their first four fixtures and yet were able to finish strong and earn a playoff with Australia.
The last time they faced Mexico in a World Cup qualifying match was four years ago when they went a goal down on two occasions but kept fighting back, eventually winning 3-2.
They will need to show that fighting spirit this weekend if they are to collect something in Mexico City, one of the most challenging places in the entire world to play.
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Team News
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Jorge Sanchez scored his second international goal for El Tri on Thursday off an excellent through-ball by Hirving Lozano, who saw his first game action in the Octagon as he and teammate Edson Alvarez would earn their 50th cap with an appearance this weekend.
Goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa had to be sharp against Canada, stopping a few strong close-range efforts, and he will be hoping for a bit of redemption versus the Hondurans as his own goal in their final qualifier for the 2018 finals gave La H some life, as they eventually came away with the victory.
Raul Jimenez played the entire match as the central striker on Thursday, his first action in this qualifying campaign, while captain Andres Guardado picked up his 170th cap in their last fixture and midfielder Uriel Antuna came on as a substitute, his 24th career appearance for the Mexicans.
Luis Lopez only had to make one save in goal for Honduras in their previous game to pick up his second clean sheet in this round of qualifying, as his defence played well in front of him, including their captain Maynor Figueroa, who now has 175 caps for the senior squad.
CF Montreal forward Romell Quioto was the hero the last time his side played and beat Mexico in a World Cup qualifier, but he was not even on the substitutes bench against the Costa Ricans.
Alberth Elis can earn his 50th international cap if he sees the field in this one, Boniek Garcia made his 134th appearance for the team on Thursday and Alexander Lopez, who scored on a penalty versus Canada, returned to the starting lineup for the first time since suffering an injury following that goal.
Mexico possible starting lineup:
Ochoa; Sanchez, Moreno, Araujo, Rodriguez; Pineda, Dos Santos, Guardado; Funes Mori, Jimenez, Lozano
Honduras possible starting lineup:
L. Lopez; Alvarez, Maldonado, Figueroa, Pereira; Moya, Arriaga, Acosta, A. Lopez, Quioto; Elis
We say: Mexico 2-0 Honduras
Since they began playing World Cup qualifiers at the Azteca back in 1934, El Tri have won 63 of their 73 games there, losing only twice, and we expect them to get back to winning ways in this one, while also being a lot more aggressive than they were against Canada.
The Hondurans have been able to keep a match close, starting strong, but their age and lack of pace in the middle of the pitch should allow Mexico to play into their strength and knock the ball around which should eventually pay off.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 64.87%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Honduras had a probability of 9.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 22.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (16.82%) and 3-0 (8.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.13%), while for a Honduras win it was 0-1 (6.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mexico would win this match.
