League One

League One | Gameweek 31

Feb 3, 2024 at 3pm UK

Fratton Park

Portsmouth
4 - 1
Northampton

Ogilvie (7'), Lane (16', 58'), Lang (70')
Sparkes (90+5')
McIntyre (54')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Leonard (89')
Guthrie (42')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Portsmouth and Northampton Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Portsmouth

All competitions

Last Game: Oxford Utd 2-2 Portsmouth
Tuesday, January 30 at 7.45pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Northampton Town

All competitions

Last Game: Northampton 0-2 Shrewsbury
Saturday, January 27 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Portsmouth 3-1 Northampton Town

With the Cobblers struggling with injuries, they could probably do without an away game against the current league leaders. While they may have lost just one of their last five away league matches, Northampton have succumbed in each of their previous four away meetings with Portsmouth, and we think that run will continue with a defeat on Saturday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portsmouth win with a probability of 54.93%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Northampton Town had a probability of 22.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portsmouth win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.63%) and 2-0 (8.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.62%), while for a Northampton Town win it was 1-2 (5.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portsmouth would win this match.

Result
Portsmouth	Draw	Northampton Town
54.93% ( -0.78)	22.66% ( -0.08)	22.4% ( 0.86)

Both teams to score 56.36% (

1.48)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.72% (

1.39)

43.27% (

-1.4)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.33% (

1.36)

65.67% (

-1.36)

Portsmouth Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.35% (

0.22)

15.65% (

-0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.32% (

0.41)

44.68% (

-0.42)

Northampton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.82% (

1.58)

33.18% (

-1.58)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.21% (

1.71)

69.79% (

-1.71)

Score Analysis

Portsmouth 54.93%

Northampton Town 22.4%

Draw 22.66%

Portsmouth	Draw	Northampton Town
2-1 @ 9.85% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 9.63% ( -0.52) 2-0 @ 8.93% ( -0.42) 3-1 @ 6.09% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 5.52% ( -0.21) 3-2 @ 3.36% ( 0.16) 4-1 @ 2.82% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 2.56% ( -0.08) 4-2 @ 1.56% ( 0.09) 5-1 @ 1.05% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 0.95% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.61% Total : 54.93%	1-1 @ 10.62% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 5.44% ( 0.22) 0-0 @ 5.19% ( -0.33) 3-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.17% Total : 22.66%	1-2 @ 5.86% ( 0.19) 0-1 @ 5.73% ( -0.1) 0-2 @ 3.16% ( 0.08) 1-3 @ 2.16% ( 0.16) 2-3 @ 2% ( 0.16) 0-3 @ 1.16% ( 0.08) Other @ 2.34% Total : 22.4%