Colombia do battle with Panama in the quarter-finals of the 2024 Copa America at State Farm Stadium in Arizona on Saturday.
The winners of this encounter will face the victors of the last-eight showdown between Uruguay and Brazil in the semi-finals.
Match preview
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Colombia have progressed to the knockout rounds for the sixth successive Copa America tournament, after finishing top of Group D with seven points from three matches.
After winning their opening two group-stage fixtures against Paraguay and Costa Rica by an aggregate score of 5-1, Colombia required at least a draw against South American giants Brazil to maintain their position at the summit.
During a frantic first half in California, Brazil took the lead in the 12th minute courtesy of a superb free kick from Raphinha, but Los Cafeteros battled their way back into the contest and rescued a point thanks to a strike from Daniel Munoz.
The result means that Nestor Lorenzo has preserved his impressive unbeaten record as Colombia manager, winning 17 and drawing six of his 23 matches in all competitions since taking the reins in July 2022.
Ranked 12th in the world by FIFA, Colombia have reached the Copa America semi-finals in two of the last three tournaments and will fancy their chances of securing their spot in the last four on Saturday, as they have won their last two meetings with Panama by an aggregate score of 7-0 - their last encounter (3-0) was back in June 2019, though.
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After failing to advance from the group stage in their debut appearance at the Copa America in 2016, Panama have qualified for the knockout rounds for the first time in their history this year after picking up six points to finish second in Group C.
Despite losing their opening match 3-1 to eventual Group C winners Uruguay, Los Canaleros collected maximum points from their next two fixtures, following up a 2-1 comeback triumph over host nation USA with a 3-1 win against Bolivia on Tuesday.
Jose Fajardo's first-half opener was cancelled out by Bruno Miranda with 20 minutes remaining, temporarily dropping Panama behind USA into third place, but super-subs Eduardo Guerrero and Cesar Yanis scored in the final 11 minutes to seal the victory and qualification for the quarter-finals.
One of only two CONCACAF nations competing in the knockout rounds along with tournament debutants Canada, Panama have made significant improvements under the tutelage of former Leeds United boss Thomas Christiansen, climbing 38 places in the FIFA World Rankings up to 43rd since the Danes' appointment in 2020.
Panama head into Saturday's contest in high spirits having won 10 of their last 15 international matches and will endeavour to come out on top against Colombia for the first time since July 2005 when they beat the South Americans twice (1-0 in the group stage and 3-2 in the semi-finals) en route to the Gold Cup final.
Team News
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Colombia will be without Crystal Palace's Jefferson Lerma due to suspension, so Mateus Uribe could be handed a start next to Richard Rios and Jhon Arias in a three-man midfield.
Jhon Lucumi missed Colombia's final two group-stage matches due to an injury picked up on matchday one and the defender remains a doubt for Saturday's contest.
Lorenzo could therefore continue with Davinson Sanchez and Carlos Cuesta in central defence, while a late call is set to be made over whether Jhon Cordoba continues up front ahead of Rafael Santos Borre and Chelsea-linked Jhon Duran.
As for Panama, CONMEBOL have confirmed that Adalberto Carrasquilla will serve a two-match suspension after he was shown a straight red card for a stud-showing tackle on Christian Pulisic in Panama's win over USA last week.
Jovani Welch played in the absence of Carrasquilla against Bolivia and is set to continue in centre-midfield alongside Cristian Martinez, with Cesar Blackman and Edgar Barcenas providing width on the flanks.
Roderick Miller was dropped to the substitutes' bench last time out and will be hoping to force his way back into the starting lineup at the expense of Carlos Harvey to play alongside Jose Cordoba and Edgardo Farina at centre-back.
Colombia possible starting lineup:
Vargas; Munoz, Sanchez, Cuesta, Mojica; Rios, Uribe, Arias; Rodriguez, Cordoba, Diaz
Panama possible starting lineup:
Mosquera; Murillo, Farina, Cordoba, Harvey, Davies; Blackman, Martinez, Welch, Barcenas; Fajardo
We say: Colombia 3-1 Panama
Both nations enter Saturday's contest in buoyant mood, but Colombia will be regarded as the favourites to come out on top. Los Cafeteros have not lost in any competition since February 2022 and they should have enough quality in the final third to break down Panama's five-man backline.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colombia win with a probability of 42.05%. A win for Panama had a probability of 30.36% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colombia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (7.96%). The likeliest Panama win was 0-1 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Colombia would win this match.
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