As much as Lorient were helped by some individual Lyon errors in midweek, take nothing away from Les Merlus' stunning start to the campaign, and a third-straight win at the Stade du Moustoir is on the cards.
Nantes battled well on Thursday night but are working with less rest time than their in-form counterparts, and their away-day struggles are set to continue versus the rejuvenated Merlus, who are determined to avoid a 12th game without a win in this fixture.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lorient win with a probability of 40.38%. A win for Nantes had a probability of 32.23% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lorient win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.39%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Nantes win was 0-1 (9.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lorient would win this match.
0.81) 
-0.99) 
