Adelaide United play host to Macarthur on Wednesday with just goal difference separating the two clubs in the A-League standings.
The home side, who sit in fourth position, are without a win in two outings, while their opponents have lost ground in the title race with a surprise defeat against Brisbane Roar.
Match preview
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On the back of three successive wins, Macarthur would have had every confidence in defeating mid-table Brisbane Roar, who had failed to emerge victorious in their previous five games.
However, one of the surprise packages of the campaign were well beaten on home territory, their consolation goal coming in the final minutes through Lachlan Rose.
With four defeats having now been recorded from eight games, Ante Milicic must find a way to lift his players as they bid to stay in contention for top spot.
Still sitting just four points behind leaders Central Coast Mariners, there will be optimism that Macarthur can get back on track in the coming weeks.
Nevertheless, despite the goals of Matt Derbyshire, this team have now gone eight fixtures without scoring more than twice in a single game.
Like their opponents, Adelaide had put together a string of victories before seeing that run brought to a grinding halt with a defeat.
The 2-1 reverse to the Mariners was followed by a draw against Western Sydney Wanderers, a positive result for Adelaide given that they played the majority of the second half at a man disadvantage.
The Reds will have to show similar character on Wednesday having already succumbed to a 4-0 defeat to Macarthur as recently as February 12.
However, Adelaide have the second-best points-per-game ratio since that setback, claiming as many as 19 points from just eight fixtures.
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Team News
Adelaide will be without Louis D'Arrigo after the young midfielder was sent off for two yellow cards during the last game.
Joe Caletti could be drafted in as a like-for-like replacement, but the remainder of the side could remain the same if Carl Veart opts against introducing fresh legs.
Lachlan Rose is in line to earn a recall to the Macarthur side, potentially taking the place of Loic Puyo.
Antonis Martis is also pushing for an opportunity in the starting lineup, while Antony Golec is an option if Milicic makes changes to his back three.
Adelaide United possible starting lineup:
Gauci; Strain, Elsey, Timotheou, Cavallo; Caletti, Juande; Halloran, Mauk, Goodwin; Juric
Macarthur possible starting lineup:
Federici; Golec, Milligan, Susnjar; Li.Rose, Benat, Genreau, Oar; La.Rose, Derbyshire, Hollman
We say: Adelaide United 1-1 Macarthur
With both teams having struggled at some point over the past two weeks, it would not come as a surprise if quality is lacking at the start of this contest. Nevertheless, we still expect a competitive encounter, one which could end in a low-scoring draw.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 48.05%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 28.44% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.41%) and 2-0 (7.32%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (6.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.
