The hosts currently sit in eighth place in the table having narrowly lost out to Norwich City on Saturday, while Derby are still bottom of the league after their 1-0 loss against Bristol City.

Match preview

Boro boss Neil Warnock on September 11, 2020 © Reuters

Middlesbrough's unbeaten run of 10 games came to an end at the weekend as they were undone by a late penalty by Teemu Pukki. It was also the first goal they had conceded in 452 minutes.

Boro were controversially denied their own penalty when Marcus Tavernier was adjudged to have made a double connection with the ball as he converted. Such is football, Norwich were handed a penalty soon after, and all of their possession was rewarded as they scored to take all three points.

Looking ahead to Derby, Boro will hope they can buck a trend of losses which means they are winless in their last four league meetings with Derby, since a 2-1 away win in April 2018.

As a manager, Neil Warnock's track record is not much better and he has only won one of his last 11 league meetings with Derby County, last winning with Cardiff in 2017.

Despite their unbeaten record, Middlesbrough are now without a win in three and will welcome a home fixture against the division's bottom side in the hope that they can get back to winning ways, and keep pace with the playoff-chasing pack.

Derby County's Lee Buchanan in action with Bristol City's Jamie Paterson and Jack Hunt on November 21, 2020 © Reuters

Derby's woes continued as interim management led by Wayne Rooney and Liam Rosenior could not inspire a result away to Bristol City on Saturday.

Rooney impressed against City and will be key to Derby's recovery, both on and off the pitch. Rams fans will also be buoyed by his ability to hurt Boro, with six goal involvements in his last six league matches against the Smoggies.

The Riverside has not always been a happy hunting ground for Derby, after a run saw them lose nine of 10 league visits to Middlesbrough between 2001 and 2016, but they are unbeaten in their last three and will be desperate to extend that run.

Derby have not won away in five games, with their last victory - and only win of the season - coming against Norwich City.

Middlesbrough Championship form: DWWDDL

Derby County Championship form: DDDLLL

Team News

Britt Assombalonga celebrates scoring for Middlesbrough with James Tavernier on July 22, 2020 © Reuters

Britt Assombalonga could return to the starting lineup on Wednesday night having sat out the last two and will be keen to add to the three goals he has scored against Derby to date.

After no goals in three games, Warnock may look to shuffle his pack in order to ignite his attacking line. The seemingly out-of-favour Patrick Roberts could be selected. Alternatively, Chuba Akpom could partner Assombalonga to bolster Boro's attacking options.

Grant Hall is nearing full fitness and could feature as Warnock looks to reintroduce the recent signing back into the fold.

For Derby, defender Krystian Bielik was not involved in the matchday squad for Derby's 1-0 loss on Saturday afternoon, but could return.

Youngster Jahmal Hector-Ingram is also pushing for a start after Rosenior admitted he was close to starting away to Bristol City, after impressing in training.

Middlesbrough possible starting lineup:
Bettinelli; Dijksteel, Fry, McNair; Bola, Howson, Saville, Tavernier, Spence; Coulson, Assombalonga

Derby County possible starting lineup:
Marshall; Wisdom, Davies, Clarke, Forsyth; Bird, Shinnie; Waghorn, Rooney, Holmes; Hector-Ingram

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We say: Middlesbrough 1-0 Derby County

Goals could be hard to come by on Tuesday night, with Derby likely to try and keep it tight for large periods. The onus will be on a blunt Boro attack to stamp their authority on the game, but we suspect they will find a way to overcome the opposition.

Top betting tip

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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 42.78%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 30.02% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (8.01%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (9.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.