Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 55.82%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 21.77%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.61%) and 2-0 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.49%), while for a Sporting Kansas City win it was 1-2 (5.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Austin FC would win this match.