While the Quakes are in much better form domestically than LA, their defensive shape has not looked solid away from home.
Chicharito is back to 100%, and we expect his quality and leadership will spark this team to victory against perhaps their most hated rivals.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles Galaxy win with a probability of 55.08%. A win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 23.36% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles Galaxy win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.82%) and 1-0 (7.8%). The likeliest San Jose Earthquakes win was 1-2 (6.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Los Angeles Galaxy in this match.