Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nashville SC win with a probability of 37.39%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 35.98% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nashville SC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (6.48%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (9.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nashville SC would win this match.