Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Jose Earthquakes win with a probability of 41.06%. A win for Real Salt Lake had a probability of 34.69% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Jose Earthquakes win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.85%) and 2-0 (6.17%). The likeliest Real Salt Lake win was 1-2 (7.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that San Jose Earthquakes would win this match.